Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.018622 0.021105 0.023801 0.026945 0.030514 0.034440 0.039090
2025-06-22 0.014037 0.017293 0.021133 0.026003 0.032021 0.039224 0.048516
2025-06-29 0.011714 0.015269 0.019707 0.025663 0.033463 0.043352 0.056881
2025-07-06 0.009865 0.013464 0.018169 0.024783 0.033867 0.045941 0.063274
2025-07-13 0.009066 0.012880 0.018071 0.025671 0.036551 0.051626 0.074207
2025-07-20 0.008345 0.012289 0.017853 0.026299 0.038851 0.056902 0.084990
2025-07-27 0.007796 0.011862 0.017790 0.027093 0.041400 0.062687 0.096995
2025-08-03 0.007079 0.011100 0.017140 0.026914 0.042423 0.066237 0.105877
2025-08-10 0.006503 0.010487 0.016642 0.026891 0.043642 0.070130 0.115582
2025-08-17 0.005905 0.009775 0.015915 0.026416 0.044059 0.072742 0.123384
2025-08-24 0.005542 0.009407 0.015696 0.026732 0.045770 0.077555 0.135237
2025-08-31 0.005134 0.008925 0.015241 0.026598 0.046689 0.081086 0.145157
2025-09-07 0.004915 0.008753 0.015305 0.027382 0.049302 0.087809 0.161474
2025-09-14 0.004435 0.008081 0.014450 0.026469 0.048819 0.089052 0.167993
2025-09-21 0.004096 0.007629 0.013939 0.026120 0.049310 0.092055 0.178007
2025-09-28 0.003713 0.007063 0.013173 0.025224 0.048689 0.092924 0.183979
2025-10-05 0.003610 0.007012 0.013351 0.026128 0.051572 0.100637 0.204045
2025-10-12 0.003479 0.006896 0.013393 0.026768 0.053985 0.107629 0.223296
2025-10-19 0.003377 0.006827 0.013518 0.027576 0.056796 0.115632 0.245349
2025-10-26 0.003170 0.006530 0.013170 0.027393 0.057558 0.119541 0.259125
2025-11-02 0.002997 0.006288 0.012912 0.027371 0.058645 0.124197 0.274917
2025-11-09 0.002792 0.005961 0.012454 0.026887 0.058702 0.126676 0.286122
2025-11-16 0.002680 0.005822 0.012374 0.027208 0.060530 0.133097 0.306763